FEATURES : Climate Change Adaptation

A great deal of the work of engineers and geoscientists involves “what ifs.” What if a building is hit by a hurricane or an earth tremor? What if there is an unusually high flood? It is the job of the professions to keep the public safe even in extreme scenarios.

SSome of the scenarios we face today are those posed by climate change. While there remains some public debate and while there will always be some skeptics, the degree of consensus surrounding climate change is more than high enough that engineers and geoscientists must take it seriously as part of their project planning.

Much of the discussion surrounding climate change focuses on mitigations i.e. how to reduce CO2 emissions to minimize the effects of climate change. But another part of the discussion is climate change adaptation. What can engineers and geoscientists do to protect the public from the effects of climate change?

Some of the predicted consequences of climate change may be global and negative such as coastal inundation, ocean acidification and loss of biodiversity. Others at the regional scale may be positive, such as warmer weather in cold climates, increased growing days for crops and more precipitation in the Northern Great Plains.

Failure to predict and plan for regional climate change could negatively affect social and economic systems, regardless of whether the local effects of climate change are negative or positive. APEGS professionals will be called upon to assess risks related to climate change, and to mitigate them via adaptation. A more resilient society is a more sustainable society.

What may be In store for Saskatchewan

Future climate projections make use of a variety of modelling tools to anticipate the effects, environmental and socio-economic effects, of various levels of emissions.

In Saskatchewan, low emissions scenarios predict an increase in mean temperature of 1.6°C in the winter and 1.0°C in the summer by 2050. Predicted temperature increases under a high emissions scenario are up to 5.5°C in the winter and 4.0°C in the summer.

The low emissions scenarios predict an increase in precipitation of 2.1 per cent in the winter and a decrease of 2.4 per cent in the summer by 2050. Under a high emissions scenario predicted precipitation changes range up to an increase of 18.7 per cent in the winter and a decrease of 4.8 per cent in the summer.

But these incremental changes are only part of the story. For many climate change effects, changes in the frequency and magnitude of extreme events are more important than changes in mean values. For example, under a high emissions scenario, an annual maximum daily temperature that would currently be attained once every 10 years on average could become an annual event by the end of the century.

Similarly, extreme weather events are now generating catastrophic losses in Canada well beyond historical norms. Loss claims in Canada grew for the 25-year period from 1983-2008, from a typical range of $200-$500 million annually to more than $1 billion per year for every year from 2009 onward.

Adapting by assessing and mitigating climate risks

In response to the need to assess and mitigate climate-related risk, Engineers Canada has developed the Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee Protocol (PIEVC). PIEVC has already been applied to risk assessments for water and wastewater systems, buildings, electricity distribution, roads, bridges and airports.

The protocol systematically reviews historical climate information and projects the nature, severity and probability of future climate changes and events. It also establishes the adaptive capacity of infrastructure assets as determined by their design, operation and maintenance.

PIEVC includes an estimate of the severity of climate effects on the components of the infrastructure (i.e. deterioration, damage or destruction) to enable the identification of higher risk components and the nature of the threats from climate change impacts. This information can be used to make informed engineering decisions on what components require adaptation as well as how to adapt them (e.g. design adjustments, changes to operational or maintenance procedures).

Consequences of failing to adapt

Perhaps more than ever, engineers and geoscientists must consider the future liabilities of their decisions and professional endeavours of today. Legislation and regulation around climate adaptation have not yet been enacted yet as statute law. Hence legal direction for dealing with climate change liability issues is being led by common law in North America. As professionals, we need to take steps beyond current regulation and policies and, as a professional body, we should be aware that codes and standards may be inadequate to deal with future events.

This means, for example, that a Saskatchewan municipality could see litigation if an extreme climate event occurs, even when current codes and standards are adhered to for the construction of infrastructure that was built to standards “at that time”. If the court deems a breach of duty or standard of care, they could find negligence on behalf of the professionals involved. Class action lawsuits could result, with significant impacts to local economies.

This is not a call for panic, but rather a time to prepare and develop awareness. We should learn how to adapt to the new demands being placed upon our profession.

Engineers Canada is committed to raising awareness about the potential effects of climate change as it relates to professional practice. They have recently published a National Guideline to assist this effort titled Principles of Climate Change Adaptation for Engineers. The APEGS Environment and Sustainability Committee encourages engineers and geoscientists to keep themselves informed about the changing climate and consider potential impacts on their professional activities.